Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are seen as minimal, but his “spectre” will cast its shadow over Friday’s announcement of the winner in Oslo, experts say.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee knows it will be under close scrutiny: since his return to the White House in January 2025, the billionaire Republican has campaigned intensively for the prize and hasn’t hidden his disappointment at not winning it yet.
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The chances of him getting the nod are however undermined by his war against Iran, his territorial ambitions — sometimes at the expense of allies, as in Greenland — and his attacks on international cooperation institutions and the media.
Even though he has not been lobbying as openly for the Nobel in recent weeks, Trump remains on everyone’s minds, with strong chances that the committee’s pick will, regardless of who they choose, be interpreted as direct or indirect criticism of the US president.
Trump is “the spectre in the room”, said the head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), Haakon Gjerlow.
He said the Nobel committee must be asking itself: “Is there any potential for this prize to create harm rather than good in awarding it?”, given the reactions that could emerge from the White House.
The Nobel Institute says it is unfazed.
“There’s always a lot of lobbying, and ultimately perhaps also attempts to exert pressure on the committee. So in one sense we’re very used to that,” the secretary of the committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP.
“It’s not something we don’t discuss. Of course we have to discuss it, but it’s not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out,” he insisted.
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